The unfolding scandal playing out in the criminal trial of the former executives of Yukos, the seized and dismantled Russian oil company, promises to expose the sordid side of what passes for justice in Russia in 2010. The Yukos Defendants are pointing to the reportedly unprecedented withdrawal of a decade of audits performed by a global accounting firm for Yukos, as having occurred as the direct and proximate result of threatened criminal action against the accounting firm's staff, amid fears that the Russian Government would not renew the company's operating license, unless the audits were voided for grounds which would lead to charges against the Yukos leadership. When it appears, to the objective observer, that such events can, and do happen, then you can throw out any chance a foreign company or businessman has of obtaining fair and impartial justice in Russia. The rule of law has simply been co-opted; it does not exist. Kindly govern yourself accordingly.
For further reading, please visit: http://www.world-check.com/articles/2010/09/08/raise-country-risk-again-russia/ For more information on the author please click on the following link: http://www.world-check.com/kennethrijock/
The food riots in the capital of Mozambique, which reportedly killed 10 and wounded over 400, are a cause for concern. Should they continue, the financial structure Maputo could be disrupted for an extended period, which would eventually interfere with international trade, the flow of payments, the repayment of debts in the ordinary course of business, and the shipment of materials to the EU and the US. Other cities have also reportedly had rioting and violence. Watch this matter carefully, if you have clients who are either trading with Mozambican companies, or have investments there.
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The President of the United States has executed an Executive Order that ushers in new sanctions, specifically directed against the illegal programmes of the Government of North Korea. Targeted: money laundering, arms sales, counterfeiting of foreign currency and cigarettes, and even luxury goods procurement. it seems that senior government officials, and high-ranking military officers enjoy luxury cars, jewelry and yachts, whilst their countrymen continue to live in poverty, and die of starvation. State-owned and controlled atomic energy companies are also designated as NPWMD, as is the infamous Office 39, " a secretive branch of the North Korean government that manages slush funds, ands raises money for the leadership, including by trafficking drugs.*
For further reading, please visit: http://www.world-check.com/articles/2010/09/02/us-increases-sanctions-north-korea/ For more information on the author please click on the following link: http://www.world-check.com/kennethrijock/
The consistent refusal of the Afghan government to prosecute corruption cases involving officials at the ministerial and cabinet levels, which was demonstrated this week when that country's president sacked a senior corruption prosecutor, has resulted in runaway corruption that poses a clear and present danger to any Western business that is operating in Afghanistan. Increased anti-corruption enforcement, whether it be the FCPA in the United States, or the Anti-Bribery Law in the UK, creates the risk that the actions of a foreign agent will incriminate the parent company or entity. When too many hands are outstretched for bribes or kickbacks, sooner or later, someone in legal trouble implicates the company that they were supposed to be serving in an ethical manner. Has doing business in Afghanistan has now become an ultra hazardous activity ?
For further reading, please visit: http://www.world-check.com/articles/2010/08/31/raise-country-risk-afghanistan/ For more information on the author please click on the following link: http://www.world-check.com/kennethrijock/
November elections in Egypt pit the government-approved parties against independent candidates linked to the banned Muslim Brotherhood, who is now allied with former UN Nuclear Monitoring agency (IAEA) head and governmental reformer, Mohamed El-Baradei. El-Baradei, who could possibly run for president next year, provided that reforms are enacted, will, if so qualified, be opposed by the government choice, Gamal Mubarek, the son of President Hosni Mubarek. Will the peoples' response to the probable failure of Egypt to reform its constitution before the elections detabilise the government ? Possibly; Rumours of a possible Muslim Brotherhood boycott at election time also add to the uncertainty. The lifting of Martial Law, which has been in force since 1981, has been a central issue of the reformist movement, which is also focusing on human rights violations.
For further reading, please visit: http://www.world-check.com/articles/2010/08/26/raise-country-risk-again-egypt/ For more information on the author please click on the following link: http://www.world-check.com/kennethrijock/
The situation in the Indian-administered region of Kashmir has deteriorated into a government-enforced curfew; civilian casualties since June stand at 57, and organised resistance activities by the Muslim majority have resulted in a dangerous response. Indian police and paramilitaries have been accused of using lethal tactics in dealing with unarmed street demonstrators. If Kashmir spirals out of control, will the resulting political, military and diplomatic fallout result in an increase of business and financial risk for India?
For further reading, please visit: http://www.world-check.com/articles/2010/08/15/should-you-raise-country-risk-india/ For more information on the author please click on the following link: http://www.world-check.com/kennethrijock/
The Central Bank of Iraq has approved branch applications from two private Iranian financial institutions, Parsian Bank and Karafarin Bank. Iranian banks operating out of Iraq could easily evade UN, EU and US sanctions imposed against Iran, for transactions involving the purchase of dual-purpose goods could hide in legitimate trade being conducted for the massive Iraqi reconstruction programme. It will also facilitate money laundering of Iranian funds, through the use of Western banks in the Middle East, which could be accessed through third-party Iraqi banks. Though some commentators have warned that the Central Bank of Iraq would never approve the branch license applications, approval was granted on 1 August, 2010. It is important to know that trade between the two neighbors averages $7bn annually, and Iran recently opened a trade office in Soleimanieh, in Northern Iraq.
For further reading, please visit: http://www.world-check.com/articles/2010/08/13/iraq-approves-iranian-branch-banks-raise-country-r/ For more information on the author please click on the following link: http://www.world-check.com/kennethrijock/
Russia has announced that it has deployed its S-300 advanced SAM missile system in the Georgian enclave of Abkhazia that is under Russian occupation. Russian military officials have stated that the installation of the surface-to-air missile system is defensive in nature, an allegation which is disputed by officials from the Republic of Georgia, who have described the act as a violation of the peace accords signed by the two countries after their 2008 conflict. Add this to the deployment of missile systems in the other Russian-occupied Georgian territory, South Ossetia, and you have a tense military situation, which the Georgian government claims is an intentional attempt to destabilise the region.
For further reading, please visit: http://www.world-check.com/articles/2010/08/12/raise-country-risk-again-republic-georgia/ For more information on the author please click on the following link: http://www.world-check.com/kennethrijock/
This week's border clash, between the Lebanese Army and the Israel Defence Forces, when added to ongoing Lebanese political tension over reportedly impending criminal charges in the Rafik Hariri assassination, and Israeli allegations that weapons secured for the Lebanese Army by the United States and France could be used against it, result in a potential incident that could precipitate an armed conflict in the region. Syrian and Hizbollah statements of support, made after the border battle, may only exacerbate what has become a serious situation.
For further reading, please visit: http://www.world-check.com/articles/2010/08/05/raise-risk-levels-lebanon-and-israel/ For more information on the author please click on the following link: http://www.world-check.com/kennethrijock/
The United States has entered the long-standing territorial dispute between China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, Taiwan and Indonesia, regarding the Spratley* Islands, which are located in the South China Sea, in international waters. China regards the islands as a "core interest," and, given the tense situation in Korea, and the ongoing rivalry between the US and China over use of the international waters off the coast of China, the American announcement, that it would attempt to assist multilateral negotiations over the islands, could raise the risk of a military incident in the area . Smaller nations with colourable claims , especially Vietnam, who has gone to war with China over less, may commit forces to their remote outposts in the island chain, and China may retaliate. This is a very volatile situation, which could result in military action, destabilising the region, and thus raising country risk.
For further reading, please visit: http://www.world-check.com/articles/2010/07/28/watch-regional-risk-countries-bordering-south-chin/ For more information on the author please click on the following link: http://www.world-check.com/kennethrijock/
The Finance Minister of the Republic of Turkey, Mehmet Simsek, has declared that Turkey will follow only the United Nations sanctions in place against Iran; it will not adopt either the United States, or the European Union, sanctions, reserves the right to trade with Iran, and to finance that trade as necessary. This announcement creates a dangerous situation for international banks whose clients are engaged in business with Turkish companies, for Iranian sanctions evasion through Turkey, if not identified and interdicted in time, could result in major fines and penalties from the US and the EU. Since Dubai has taken steps of late to minimise Iranian sanctions evasion through the UAE, the use of Turkey for that illicit purpose has a high degree of probability.
For further reading, please visit: http://www.world-check.com/articles/2010/07/26/raise-country-risk-again-turkey/ For more information on the author please click on the following link: http://www.world-check.com/kennethrijock/
The International Court of Justice has rendered an Advisory Opinion holding that the unilateral declaration of independence of the Republic of Kosovo, which occurred on 17 February, 2008, did not violate international law. Though Serbia has reportedly refused to accept this ruling, the ICJ ruling ratifies the actions taken by the Government of Kosovo, and therefore operates to reduce the political, economic and social risk levels for country risk assessment purposes. Twenty-two of the twenty-seven EU members have recognised Kosovar independence to date, as have many Western nations, including the United States.
For further reading, please visit: http://www.world-check.com/articles/2010/07/24/lower-country-risk-kosovo/ For more information on the author please click on the following link: http://www.world-check.com/kennethrijock/
